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Ϊʲô˵ȫ򾭼١ձ?

tgboler 2020-6-24 23:53 849Χ ƾѶ

Ϊʲô˵ȫ򾭼١ձ?_ƾѶ_2020-6-24 23:53__www.jikuqu.com



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ȪԴ | DZIDzhibenshe0-1

༭ |


2016 ꣬ʢʱרء²Ϊ¾ձ¡²֣ң¾תձģʽ

νձԸΪߡľó̬ʡͨ͡߸߻ҡծ

꣬򾭼ƺ²²תձ

2019 9 £ǰƳĬ˹ָŷ޺ձɿгԤʹҾѧġڶˮƽáʱΪֵŽһ˵ʱ䣬μֻһɺ֮ң

º2020 ¹ش򾭼ãŷ֡ʽ־Уµ㣬ֱӲɹծȯ ETF

˵ƽʮձʧȥʮꡱǰ򾭼ӿ조ձǷζǵĽˮʦԴšʧȥʮꡱã

ΪԡձΪ㣬μḣƷ̽򾭼õĿ򼰷

8000 ֣ĶʱԼ 30 ӣ


Ϊʲô˵ȫ򾭼١ձ?_ƾѶ_2020-6-24 23:53__www.jikuqu.com
򾭼ձ

ʮ꣬ձˡʡͨ͡߸߻ҡծ֮澳

Ϊ۾ѧһ⡣

ȴ 1990 ἰ1990 ձõĹյ㣬ʱƣһձĭ߽⣻ձͶݽյ㡣

㷺Ϊĭ߽ձɢʮꡱֱԵձʵԡ仯ӾԵ

ĭ߽󣬷ۡɼ۱ձͨ1997 ޽Σٴձãձĸ䣬ниҹµ㣬ձȱڼ䡣

2001 껥ĭձп QE ̽˫ QEE ʵ鸺 NIRP ձȱ˸ڼ䡣

ձеļȿߣҪǸձֲṩʡֱӹձծȯΪձծȨˡ

2008 Σձд˵ծȯIJɹձгеձծģѾձ GDP

Ϊʲô˵ȫ򾭼١ձ?_ƾѶ_2020-6-24 23:53__www.jikuqu.com
ͼ | ձʲ˹ɣ
ȪԴ | BOJ֤ȯо1

2019 ձծܶ 1103.35 Ԫծռ GDP ʴ 238% Ϊߡ

γ˵ʡ߻ҡծľ档ǣΪʲôҿûͨͣҲûܴ̼

Ŀ֮ǰҲձֱӲɹծȯҵƱƱ ETF 2010 꿪ʼı˻˿¡ЧӦ

ҽ˽гûнƷгγɽгͨͺʵ徭ͨıձҵƱ͹Ʊ ETF վָ 2012 ׵ 9000 ǵ 2020 22000 㡣

ԴϵڿתҵסõҲͶʲɥҵУƸ˴ģʮ꣬ձס2010 ձסдռʲı 53%Ÿͬ 15%

ʵ徭õͨͨԡ2018 ձ CPI ͬԼ 0.9% Ȼ 2% ͨĿꡣ

ձʲôҪҵйƱ͹Ʊ ETF

ձҵгдĹƱʲƱʵǾȼҵС

1995 2000 ꣬ձͶʹƱʲģ 40 Ԫϣռʲı 6% 2004 ףҵеĹƱʲģˮ 22.9 Ԫռʲı3%ͬʱҵл˴Դʴ 2000 ׵ 11.1% 䵽 2002 ׵ 9.6%

ձдӡĩ˴ˡΪˡĩ˵ҡ2018 3 ձձծȨˣΪԼ 40% ձй˾ǰʮɶ֮һ

ûƶøգʵ徭ͨձóڵԡʮݵ GDP ʶ 2% ָ

䱳Եʲô

2016 Ϊձͣͨ͡ήңⱳҪԵձͶռȵ»

1990 ǰձͶݽյ㣬ͶݲΪձõԵԵ

ձһ仯Ĺң긧ȵ 45.2% ձϸ 60 ĩʼ仯 2016 60 ϵռȵ 33.7% 65 ϵռȵ 27.3% ձܺʴ 1947 Ĵ 4 䵽 2005 ĵ͵ 1.26 δ 15 ռȴ 1947 35% 䵽 2015 12% ҡ

Ϊʲô˵ȫ򾭼١ձ?_ƾѶ_2020-6-24 23:53__www.jikuqu.com
ͼ | ձ仯
ȪԴ | ձʡձͶʡ֤ȯо

㷺Ϊձľʣ仯˲

ձḣϵdz仯Ӿ磬ȡϽԽԽ࣬ձ籣Ҳѹء

ձ˾籣 15 50% 仯ɸռȴ 1975 33% ε 2015 68% 񸺵˰պ籣ռıأ 70 24% ε 2018 43% ձֲҽƱաϱյ籣ռҲԤ 33.7% 2

ĭõĴ仯֧䣬ձڻҼУγˡʡͨ͡߸߻ҡծ񡱵ľþ档

˸еĵǣʮ꣬¾ձ2008 Σ󣬻ɣֱӲɹծΪʣŷծȯʽΪ

2016 ꣬10 ձծȯΪ- 0.27% 10 ڵ¹ծȯ- 0.19% 10ʿծȯΪ- 0.61%

2019 ꣬ʷš¹ͺծȯгΪծȯгҲΪȻձȻǻծȯ׹ռĽһ롣

2020 ¹ʽ㣬ֱӲɹծȯ ETF ҵծձʵһӢôŷ޵ʲծţծҲģ

2020 3 µ 5 £ʲծ 3 Ԫģ 7.03 ԪУծʲ

Ϊʲô˵ȫ򾭼١ձ?_ƾѶ_2020-6-24 23:53__www.jikuqu.com
ͼ | ʲṹ
ȪԴ | DZ

ĽǶ2008 󣬻Ҫҽձ֮󽥽仯仯ᣬͶӭյ㣬ʽµ

Ϊʲô˵ȫ򾭼١ձ?_ƾѶ_2020-6-24 23:53__www.jikuqu.com
ͼ | ҪͶ
ȪԴ | Source United Nations. UBS

й GDP 2010 꿪ʼͨͶ 2015 꿪ʼյ㡣2019 ꣬й GDP Ϊ 6.1% 2010 꽵 4.5 ٷֵ㡣Ԥƣ2020 ֮йûݾÿ꽵 400 ˡйҪӤԾõ塣

ձ 1990 ĭΣΪյ㣬򾭼 2008 ΣΪյ㣬ձߡ֮塣

ײ߼ǣ仯߸Ҵ̼ΣҼţй򵱾ծȯ߸߻ҡծ񡢵ʡʲͨͣʵ徭ͨͨ͡


Ϊʲô˵ȫ򾭼١ձ?_ƾѶ_2020-6-24 23:53__www.jikuqu.com
ձھ

ڷ򾭼ձ֮ǰҪ

һGDP ɷȨһˮƽ

GDP ΪֵGNP ΪֵĿֻӳˮƽܷӦˮƽһͶԽʱòֵԽݴйձܲ÷Ӽ

˾ֵͶ 15 64 ꣩˾ֵõһõʵˮƽ

Ͷ˾ֵΪָ꿴ձʮľˮƽ

1990 ձ GDP Ϊ 3.13 ԪͶΪ 8605 򣬵ԪͶݵľòֵΪ 3.64 Ԫ

2010 ձ GDP Ϊ 5.7 ԪͶݽ 8215 򣬵ԪͶݵľòֵΪ 6.93 Ԫ

Ϊʲô˵ȫ򾭼١ձ?_ƾѶ_2020-6-24 23:53__www.jikuqu.com
ͼ | ձͶݵ˾òֵ
ȪԴ | DZ

ǶȿԿ 1990 굽 2010 ꣬ձͶЩһ÷ζǽ䡣⣬2012 󾭼÷ӽϴ»Ե

ǣʽ䡢仯Żᵼ¾ùģ䣬Ը侭÷Ӽˮƽ

ͨʿɷӳþ״̬

񣬺۾ѧΪ϶ͨ͡ηͨͨʵ 2% Ϊͨͻͨ

Ҫҵн 2% ΪͨĿꡣѧҸģƲ⣬2% ůͨھȹνġߡ

ֹ۵ҪůۣͨʵһֳڵļߣҲǴۡ

ھǿʵͨġܴ£ñֻƷھƷƷһƽ۷Ӷƽָ

һֹ۵ǣžͶǣǣͨǣֹ۵һ㣬ҪǶ̬ĵġͶʱҵܼͨ£̭ͶӶ廯ӶۡŷңͷȷͶ۸ߣȹҵƷ䡣

ǣͨʲΪþָ꣬ͨ𣬲ܲõԡ

ҵʿɷӳþ״̬

ʮ꣬ձòͣŵ͸ʡþѧҼΪɡ۾ѧΪͨζŸ߸У͸ӦǾǿ֡
ձͶгͣǿ2019 ձʽ 2.3% Ͷμ 2012 󽥽 62.5%

ٿ2016 ձŷҪڿʵҵʱʵ鸺ʡʱձֻ 3.2% ¹ֻ 4.2% ʿֻ 3.3%

Ϊʲô߾ҵûܶԱ

ʵͨƣҵΪþָŽʧ顣ʮ꣬ձŷ£Ͷݽ䣬˴Ͷг˳ȻɺֻҪ˳Ͷ࣬ҵȻάֽϸߵˮƽ

ǣǨҵʡͨΪߵĿ꣬ױ󵼡

ٿձ»򵽵׳ʲôĿͶ˾ֵΪָ꣬2018 ꣬ձԪͶݲֵֻ 6.57 Ԫ 2010 꽵 3600 Ԫ

ʮΪʲôձľ÷ڽ䣿

صгʧ顢÷ӵ£

һûгӤгĴ

ʽ仯ǾЧǾõԵԵΪʲô

ڱ׷֮˵תΪгžʽ䣬ὥ仯ͥѡ̭ӶԴΣ̭òֵɥʧƣùģڴŻήҲŻ÷ӡˮƽȻΡ

ǣսۡߵΪصĴ˵δѡг֮ʵķƽŶԾγ塣

ñȣܶսһҵĴձݳֽṹĿ

սǰձΪս׼һӤⲨӤڰ˾ʮ仯

ձ 65 꼰ռȴ 7% 14% ֻ 24 1970 - 1994 ꣩¹ 40 ꣬Ӣ 46 ꣬ 72 ꣬ 85 ꣬ 115 ꡣ2

սƽձӭһӤ1947 굽 1949 ձ 806 ˣռݵķdz֮һࡣ

ⲨӤձ߰ʮݺҲǾڷɵҪءǣ 2010 Щͬʱ˳ͶгձᱣϡͶгŴ

ձ 60 ռ60 ռȴ 10% ε 20% 28 ꣬ 20% ε 30% ֻ 14 ꡣ 2016 ꣬ձ 60 / 65 ռȷֱΪ 33.7% 27.3% ԶԶݹʹ 10% 7%

ɼձ 90 仯ʮܲ仯ᡣ

Ͷгϣ2018 ձͶݿٽ 7557 򣬱 2010 ̭ 658 򣬵ԪͶݵľòֵֻ 6.57 Ԫ 2010 꽵 0.36 Ԫ÷Ӳ

Ͷ֮ûƽɣԴԲȱͶݴģ˳IJֵήձʮ꾭÷ӽ

ᱣ߶гĴ

ո˵˵ĔɥͶʡϵȻǻڳԤڣǶڡմɵģӣ˵гȵԤڡñȣһͶʣΪһϡһֻгûᱣߵڼ䣬йũ壬ϡȻҪϷʽ

ǣᱣ߶ԸϵгɸţᱣŤһг籣աء

ᱣһֱȴߣһƽǸ˴ϵֲᱣϽԽߣ仯ԽϾֲѹԽ

ձᱣ޹𡢺ͽ黤գˮƽߡ 2017 㣬һԽɷ 40 ķޣݺÿ¿ȡͺһ 22 ԪԼ 1.36 ҡ2

һؼӰء

սձ˾1947 ꣬ձԾֻ 50 ꣬Ůֻ 55 ꣻ2018 ձŮֱ 81.25 ꡢ87.32 ꣬ΪĹҡ

ձЧͶ˷Ѻ籣ѹձȡ籣ľʱΪ 21 ꣬ŮΪ 27 ꡣ

2001 ꣬ձֹݣԴԭ 60 Ƴٵ 2013 65 ꣬ŮԴԭ 60 Ƴٵ 2018 65 ꡣ

Ƴݺձ˾ҵ60 - 64 ˣ 2009 ֮ҵ 15 ȫסľҵʣ2016 ꣬ձ 60 - 64 ꡢ65 - 69 ˵ľҵʷֱ𵽴 66.2% 44.3% 2

Ŷˡʧȥձִ 2000 꿪ʼҵӵĽ黤ƶȣԼѹ

ŷң巺ģḣծ

DzIJ߶гĴ

2008 ΣҪҲɱ飬жɥʧṩģʣḣѡƱ顣

ձ̽һ+ʵΣģʽγһֶʽͷԣҵ֡ҪҶЧձɺʱּӸܸˣάָ߸

¹ΪֺŽᶵף 2 ԪIJ̼ٳУ5600 ԪֱӲͥ˵ֽռ GDP 2.9%

ôסֽ 475 ڼԪռ GDP 2.3% ĴǵסΪ 249 ڰԪռ GDP 1.3% ¼µסΪ 59 Ԫռ GDP 1.3% ӡȵסΪ 1.7 ¬ȣռ GDP 1.2% ¹ó 500 ŷԪռ GDP 1.5% Сҵ廧

ййŵסֱΪ 790 ڸԪ 96.8 ڰԪֱռ GDP 2.7% 2.3%

ʵ¹Ϊѩ֡ƶʽ޿ɺйģʽĿڣʽۻ̬ʶ̬

ձģʽΪֻҪʡͨʰȣпΪṩծȯͬڻңӦɺΣ

ʮ꣬ձ򻯣ȴھ򾭼Чձھ


Ϊʲô˵ȫ򾭼١ձ?_ƾѶ_2020-6-24 23:53__www.jikuqu.com
ҹر绯

ձһɽաIJ֮·

2009 2 £ձƱɹٳ֣ٳ 2012 굽 2017 ۹ƱǣܽгӰ죬ձнɹƱ۵ռʱ 2021 Ƴٵ 2026 ꡣ

۾ѧ쾭ΪпеȱշȻ 40 ĺǣڵεĺһΡˮաʷ

ڡɱĸԴָ 40 겻ͣȡǶԳߣÿһµķȶϵķȣУռյʡŷСձнơ

Ϊʲô

ھͶʱ߼ʵݼɵ֧䣺

ҷġͶʱ߼µշҿɣҸӷġͶʱ߼ʽһµԡƷѭڸʡ̶

Ϊš̫Ͷʣ¾ֱ͡Ӳɹծȯı˻򣬵½ͨͣʵͨͣ͡

ѭУƶͨͨͣвݣƶֻӾ磬ǰһòձMᣩ


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